🔥 Politicɑl Eɑrthquɑke in Wɑles! 😱💥 Lɑbour HUMILIATED ɑs Stɑrmer’s Pɑrty COLLAPSES — Coming THIRD Behind Surging Reform!

Senior Labour figures pointed the finger at Sir Keir for the abysmal showing, which saw the party’s vote nosedive 35 per cent as it trailed in third.

After shedding support to both the Left and the Right, the PM was accused of trying to ‘ape’ Reform’s tough line on immigration. Labour MPs also demanded more spending funded by monster tax hikes at the Budget.

The result has fuelled fears of a meltdown in full Welsh elections in May, where polls indicate Labour will lose the First Minister role for the first time since devolution.

Sir Keir has yet to break his silence on the collapse, instead posting on social media about digital ID cards. He did not visit the area during the campaign.

Nigel Farage had pledged to ‘throw everything’ at winning Caerphilly, as Reform emerges as a major force in the Senedd.

But Plaid emerged victorious with a comfortable majority of 3,848 votes, and a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour, on a high turnout of more than 50 per cent.

Mr Farage, who visited the area several times but shunned the count, said Plaid had a ‘popular’ candidate and insisted the local elections in Wales would be a ‘two-horse race’ between Reform and the nationalists.

Polling guru Professor John Curtice said the result showed Labour was in ‘severe trouble’ in Wales.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘It does suggest that Plaid are now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister.

‘Reform will be disappointed at coming second with 36 per cent but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.’

Sir John said Reform UK’s result is ‘pretty consistent’ with how Mr Farage’s party has been polling more widely.

Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle celebrated coming out on top of the Caerphilly by-election

Labour insiders pointed the finger at Keir Starmer for the abysmal showing, which saw the party’s vote nosedive 35 per cent as it trailed in third

Labour’s MP for Caerphilly, Chris Evans, said it was an ‘extremely disappointing’ result and ‘lessons must be learned’

Labour MPs demanded more spending funded by monster tax hikes at the Budget

Diane Abbott, currently suspended from the Labour whip, waded into the row

Sir Keir has yet to break his silence on the collapse, instead posting on social media about digital ID cards

The result will embolden Plaid in its efforts to enter government in Wales next year.

And it is a bitter blow for Labour, which had held the seat since the Senedd was first established in 1999. The party has dominated the area in all elections for a century.

Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, more than 47 per cent of the total.

That was up almost 19 per cent from the 2021 result in the constituency with a swing from Labour of almost 27 per cent.

Reform candidate Llyr Powell got 12,113 votes – the party had only 495 four years ago – with Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe trailing on 3,713, down almost 35 per cent.

Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats getting 516 and 497 respectively.

Cabinet Office minister and Torfaen MP Nick Thomas-Symonds tried to put a brave face on the result in interviews this morning.

He told LBC that when he was knocking on doors in Caerphilly, ‘what’s been coming through to me very strongly is a frustration with the pace of change’.

He added: ‘People want us to go faster with the pace of change.

‘We’ve had thousands of conversations on the doorstep. We’ve listened. We treat the result with humility. We will then act upon that, redouble our efforts in the six months before the Senedd election.’

Labour must demonstrate ‘in word and in deed’ that it is the best option for voters in Wales, he said.

He said Sir Keir had not visited the area because the campaign was led by Welsh Labour.

Mr Thomas-Symonds said he had not yet spoken to Sir Keir after the result was announced, but said: ‘The Prime Minister is 100 per cent concerned about Wales’.

Alun Davies, Labour MS for Blaenau Gwent, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that Welsh Labour must be ‘both Welsh and Labour’.

He went on: ‘People felt that we had moved away from that. People did not like the way we spoke and sometimes dehumanised refugees…

‘Labour should have been defending its nation of sanctuary. We shouln’t be using the language of Reform when we talk about human being who are fleeing war and looking for a better life. We are better than that and people expect us to be better than that.’

Labour MP Clive Lewis said it was a ‘catastrophic’ result for Labour

Mr Farage, who visited the area several times but shunned the count, said Plaid had a ‘popular’ candidate and insisted the local elections in Wales would be a ‘two-horse race’ between Reform and the nationalists

Mr Farage posted on social media: ‘At the start of polling day, I thought that we would get 12,000 votes and we did.

‘I thought that number would be enough, but it wasn’t. The total collapse of the Labour vote to Plaid was to a party that people know well and to a popular local politician.

‘The Senedd elections next year are a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.’

Reform chairman David Bull said he was ‘incredibly upbeat’ despite the party falling short.

He told BBC Breakfast: ‘In some ways disappointing for us, but actually it’s an amazing result on another hand, because actually we’re only four years old as a party.

‘At the last election, we got 1.7 per cent and this morning we got 36 per cent. That’s a meteoric rise for us, and I think actually pretty unprecedented in modern political history.’

Dr Bull referred to the ‘decimation’ of Labour and said the Conservatives were ‘wiped off that electoral map pretty much completely’.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said ‘the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear’.

‘They’ve chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision.

‘Lindsay Whittle is a tireless local champion who knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly.’

He continued: ‘This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative.

‘We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.

‘The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.’

Mr Whittle said: ‘I want to thank everyone who put their trust in me and Plaid Cymru to represent Caerphilly.

‘It will be my honour to serve you as your new member of the Senedd.

Reform UK’s Llyr Powell had been in a close battle with Whittle

‘I’m ready to get to work straight away by making sure our local schools are properly supported, our libraries stay open, our GPs see people when they need to, and that everyone in Caerphilly gets the same chance to do well.

‘I’ve spent my whole life fighting for this community, and I won’t stop now.

‘Tonight’s result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.

‘We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.’

A poll earlier this week suggested Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour among Welsh voters ahead of next year’s Senedd elections.

The Beaufort Research survey found Mr Farage‘s party were backed by 30 per cent of Welsh voters – up five percentage points from a previous poll in June.

This put Reform ahead of Labour (23 per cent), Plaid Cymru (22 per cent), the Conservatives (11 per cent), and the Greens (9 per cent).

But, according to a projection by Nation.Cymru of how the current polling would translate into Senedd seats, Reform would be unlikely to form a government in Wales.

The projection, using software designed for Cavendish Consulting, found Reform would be the largest party in the Senedd with 37 seats.

The remaining 59 seats would be divided between Plaid (25 seats), Labour (24 seats), Conservatives (seven seats), Greens (two seats), and the Liberal Democrats (one seat), according to the model.

In such a scenario, a power-sharing arrangement between Labour and Plaid would be likeliest outcome.

The Senedd is set to expand in size from 60 seats to 96 seats following next May’s elections.